MPI Minister explains fluctuation in quarterly GDP

By An Nhien - Nov 03, 2017 | 07:04 AM GMT+7

TheLEADERThe growth figures in the passing years in Vietnam are unreasonable, with growth in quarters not following normal logic.

MPI Minister explains fluctuation in quarterly GDP
Minister of MPI Nguyen Chi Dung

Hoang Quang Ham, the National Assembly's representative of Phu Tho province pointed to unstable GDP growth in recent years. Specifically, strong growth in the final quarter of last year was very high while the first quarter of the following year experienced a sharp decrease.

The same pattern could be seen in the previous year, growth registered 7 per cent in Q4 2015 and subsequently dropped to 5.5 per cent in the first three months of 2016.

The Minister of Planning and Investment affirmed that the GDP growth rate over the passing years was unusual, increasing and decreasing suddenly in quarters of a year.

GDP growth rate is an indicator affected by production cycle, growth cycle and seasonal factors of economic activities.

As a rule for many years, the production and business activities in the first quarter of a year are usually impacted as that is the ending time of lunar new year festival. After Tet holiday, every activity must be completed before entering a new year.

The GDP growth rate is also influenced by seasonal factors such as industrial production, agriculture, shopping, and weather. GDP getting higher at the end of the year and dropping dramatically at the beginning of the next year has said to accurately reflect the cycles and seasons in the growth of the year.

Within a year, GDP in the fourth quarter usually accounts for the lion’s share and plays the key role in the growth of the whole year. The quarterly GDP is calculated to support the direction of the annual plan as well as assess the result and growth quality of the economy.