Investment hotspots: Where will capital flow in the second half of 2024?

Opportunities for investors are expected to increase in the coming years as market conditions improve, leading to more investment opportunities both in Vietnam and globally.

This optimistic view was expressed by Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, at a recent seminar on “Finding Investment Opportunities in the Second Half of the Year,” organized by Vietnam Investment Review.

Brighter macroeconomic outlook

Since the beginning of 2023, the State Bank of Vietnam has implemented a flexible monetary policy aimed at reducing lending rates for businesses in both production and real estate markets.

In the second half of 2024, the State Bank will continue to maintain policies of debt rescheduling, postponement and retaining debt group classification for businesses to keep injecting credit into the economy.

In fact, credit growth has shown positive changes in recent months, exceeding 6 per cent in the first six months of the year, and it is forecasted to surpass 15-16 per cent for the entire year.

The State Bank also continues to maintain a stable exchange rate policy and reduce the price gap between domestic and international gold prices.

According to Nghia, although monetary measures are not yet truly sustainable, they are gradually showing positive impacts, reinforcing the confidence of both domestic and international investors in the government's ability to manage the macroeconomy.

This aligns with the plan approved by the National Assembly, which includes keeping inflation below 4.5%, the devaluation of the dong below 5 per cent, and maintaining the liquidity of the banking system.

Moreover, fiscal policy continues to improve, especially with increased budget revenues. The budget deficit remains within the limits approved by the National Assembly, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio is quite stable, with financial discipline showing positive changes.

Real estate recovery

Nghia emphasized that the most prominent policy highlight from now until the end of the year is the implementation of three revised laws: the Land Law, the Housing Law and the Real Estate Business Law, which took effect on August 1, 2024, along with decrees approved by the Prime Minister.

As a result, the land, housing and real estate markets, as well as some related sectors, are positively anticipating the effectiveness of these crucial laws and decrees, especially as the real estate and housing markets are showing signs of recovery in some segments.

In the market, the supply of real estate and housing is also showing signs of increase, and Nghia hopes that after August 1, the real estate market, as well as the overall asset market, including stocks and corporate bonds, will recover positively along with the general economy due to the widespread impact of this sector.

Top assets in the portfolio

Sharing a similar view on market opportunities, Nguyen Tri Hieu, Director of the Institute for Global Financial and Real Estate Market Research and Development, stated, “From now until the end of 2024, stock investment is likely to develop the best, followed by real estate but only in specific segments.”

In recent times, the VN-Index and the stock market have grown quite positively despite being affected by foreign investors' net selling decisions and fluctuations in the global financial market.

However, Hieu still believes that the stock market will stabilize and perform better in the second half of 2024, as it is considered the “barometer of the economy.”

Accordingly, if the economy recovers strongly in the latter half of the year, the stock market will reflect this robust recovery, including stocks related to industrial zones, renewable energy, transportation, and particularly the banking sector, which will be more sustainable and attractive compared to other stocks.

Lina Nguyen, Business Development Director at Exness Investment Bank, noted that international organizations will continue to maintain their investment appetite for gold, supported by factors such as geopolitics, gold purchase demand, and interest rate adjustments.

“Gold will be the safest asset and the first in the portfolio,” she affirmed.

Digital assets out of hibernation

Furthermore, in the stock market, capital tends to concentrate in large-cap groups, with large investors always holding a position in major tech stocks like Nvidia, driven by the boom in chip manufacturing.

Large institutional investors are accepting risk appetite with new assets, including digital assets. More than $1.2 trillion has flowed into digital asset ETFs. “Cryptocurrencies are seen as having emerged from their hibernation period, with positive signals continuously appearing,” Nguyen said.

Exness leaders predict that capital inflows into digital assets will continue to rise. Financial institutions will also participate in this investment segment. Retail investors share similar interests but remain hesitant and cautious due to a lack of confirmations and risk awareness.