There are three sectors that VinaCapital expects to benefit from very strong outlook for Vietnam’s GDP growth, including banking that has a circa 30 per cent weighting in the VN-Index), property (23 per cent), and consumer discretionary stocks (3 per cent).
HSBC’s forecast for the country's GDP growth this year has been amended to 5.1 per cent, reflecting the severe impact of the latest Covid-19 outbreak.
While Vietnam’s prospects remain positive, World Bank said that the authorities should address the heightened social, financial, and fiscal risks.
A possible deceleration in 2020 growth of Vietnam's main export markets would weigh on its growth.
The country has experienced 25 per cent growth on international visitor arrivals between 2016 and 2018, with tourism receipts accounting for some 11 per cent of GDP, according to Maybank Kim Eng Research.
Should the EU-Vietnam FTA be ratified at the end of 2019, Vietnam could expect to gain some 0.3 percentage point to its real GDP, say economists at HSBC.
Fiscal policy easing or debt financing solutions for development investment are not appropriate in the context that Vietnam tries to control inflation and public debt reaching the ceiling of 65 per cent of GDP, according to international experts.
Vietnam’s economy continued to perform strongly in the first half of 2018, however, it remains vulnerable to external and domestic challenges, according to Asian Development Bank.
Vietnam would experience strong GDP growth this year and next, as it continues to attract FDI inflows and expand their manufacturing base, according to the head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
Vietnam's economy, led by strong export and tourism, is likely to expand 7.41% in the first quarter of this year, according to Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
The gross domestic product (GDP) in 2017 is estimated to increase to 6.81 per cent, exceeding the target of 6.7 per cent and the highest rate since 2011, according to General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO).
Despite many breakthroughs in 2017, Vietnam economy outlook is still forecasted to face many problems in 2018.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) upgrades its growth prospects for Vietnam to 6.7 per cent in both 2017 and 2018 compared to previous forecasts of 6.3 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively.
Economic growth of Vietnam in 2017 is anticipated 0.5 per cent higher than the previous forecast (6.2 per cent).
